Why China can't push North Korea harder
Additional US sanctions will be merely ‘marginal'
By Kim Jae-kyoung
SINGAPORE -- China is unlikely to impose harsher measures on North Korea to corner the reclusive country, according to Joseph Liow, a Singapore-based expert on international politics of the Asia-Pacific region.
He believes from Beijing's perspective, pressuring North Korean leader Kim Jong-un won't serve China's interest.
"While China has leverage, they would have to take a very strong position against Pyongyang (to change North Korea)," said Liow, dean of the S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies, Nanyang Technological University, in an interview.
"I don't believe it is in China's interest to push Pyongyang too hard."
From his perspective, since the current situation works to China's advantage, it is not in Beijing's interest to contribute in any way to undermining or discrediting Kim's regime.
He pointed out that although Pyongyang is no longer the buffer zone it used to be, its provocative actions are useful to China in terms of unsettling Japan and the U.S.
"Further to that, the Chinese also do not want to be seen as complicit in any effort to undermine the Kim regime, lest the repercussions hit its Communist Party back home as well," he said.
Liow, who was a senior fellow in the Foreign Policy Program at the Brookings Institution in Washington, said it is important to note that Beijing and Pyongyang have been drifting apart since Kim took power of the totalitarian regime.
"Under Kim Jong-un, North Korea has demonstrated little regard for China," he said.
"Kim has not given Xi Jinping much face, which is significant given the historical context of the relationship between China and North Korea."
He pointed to the fact that when China hosted the G-20 Summit, Pyongyang launched missiles; when it hosted the Belt and Road Initiative Summit, the North tested an intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM), and when it hosted the BRICS summit the reclusive state tested nuclear devices.
"In the past, the North was seen as a buffer zone and was seen as ally of China but not anymore. The relationship has changed."
Against this backdrop, he stressed more attention should be placed on Russia.
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North Korea shows signs of preparing for ballistic missile test 2017-11-28 16:08 | North Korea
"Russia also has substantial leverage over North Korea, and in the event that economic ties weaken between Beijing and Pyongyang I believe they would quickly turn to Moscow, which will be more receptive," he said.
Listing NK as terror sponsor
As for the Trump administration's designation of North Korea as a state sponsor of terrorism, the Asia-Pacific security expert said this was largely "symbolic."
"It could pave the way for more sanctions, but there are already so many that any additional sanctions would merely be marginal I think."
He added that the designation could be controversial as many have doubted whether there is incontrovertible evidence of "state sponsorship" of terrorism.
The professor of comparative and international politics expects denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula is unlikely in the foreseeable future because Kim's ultimate goal is to be recognized as a nuclear weapons state.
"Kim desires to be recognized as arguably the greatest leader in North Korean history," he said.
"The development and perfection of nuclearized ICBM capabilities would be the pinnacle of that, after which, he wants that recognition from Washington."
He thinks although the U.S. is not willing to recognize it as a nuclear weapons state, there isn't any other way because the question of Pyongyang developing that capability has become one of "when," not "if."
"So the U.S., Japan, South Korea and the rest of the world, must accept it, and then immediately talk about developing some mechanism that will foster restraint," he said.
"South Korea will actually have to lobby Washington to accept that reality but ensure that sufficient deterrence is put in place to ensure there is no realistic scenario in which North Korea will use that capability."
Denuclearization unlikely
In the 2018 Outlook seminar hosted by Canon from Nov. 21 to 22 in Singapore, Liow said instability on the Korean Peninsula will continue in 2018 because Pyongyang will further develop its ICBMs.
He expects the North will be able to create a nuclear device small enough to mount on ICBMs and improve its missile technology such that re-entry would be fairly accurate.
"The moment the North is able to achieve this, it is going to fundamentally change the strategic calculation of the U.S. and North Korea because it basically means the U.S. would face a clear and present threat from the Kim regime," Kim said.
He said it won't be easy for Trump to take pre-emptive military action unless he is certain it would completely destroy the North's nuclear capabilities.
"You have be more than 100 percent sure because if you are not able to do that, you can't be certain the regime will not use whatever it has left of that capability to launch so-called second strikes against Seoul and Tokyo," he said.
By Kim Jae-kyoung
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| Joseph Liow |
He believes from Beijing's perspective, pressuring North Korean leader Kim Jong-un won't serve China's interest.
"While China has leverage, they would have to take a very strong position against Pyongyang (to change North Korea)," said Liow, dean of the S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies, Nanyang Technological University, in an interview.
"I don't believe it is in China's interest to push Pyongyang too hard."
From his perspective, since the current situation works to China's advantage, it is not in Beijing's interest to contribute in any way to undermining or discrediting Kim's regime.
He pointed out that although Pyongyang is no longer the buffer zone it used to be, its provocative actions are useful to China in terms of unsettling Japan and the U.S.
"Further to that, the Chinese also do not want to be seen as complicit in any effort to undermine the Kim regime, lest the repercussions hit its Communist Party back home as well," he said.
Liow, who was a senior fellow in the Foreign Policy Program at the Brookings Institution in Washington, said it is important to note that Beijing and Pyongyang have been drifting apart since Kim took power of the totalitarian regime.
"Under Kim Jong-un, North Korea has demonstrated little regard for China," he said.
"Kim has not given Xi Jinping much face, which is significant given the historical context of the relationship between China and North Korea."
He pointed to the fact that when China hosted the G-20 Summit, Pyongyang launched missiles; when it hosted the Belt and Road Initiative Summit, the North tested an intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM), and when it hosted the BRICS summit the reclusive state tested nuclear devices.
"In the past, the North was seen as a buffer zone and was seen as ally of China but not anymore. The relationship has changed."
Against this backdrop, he stressed more attention should be placed on Russia.
North Korea shows signs of preparing for ballistic missile test 2017-11-28 16:08 | North Korea "Russia also has substantial leverage over North Korea, and in the event that economic ties weaken between Beijing and Pyongyang I believe they would quickly turn to Moscow, which will be more receptive," he said.
Listing NK as terror sponsor
As for the Trump administration's designation of North Korea as a state sponsor of terrorism, the Asia-Pacific security expert said this was largely "symbolic."
"It could pave the way for more sanctions, but there are already so many that any additional sanctions would merely be marginal I think."
He added that the designation could be controversial as many have doubted whether there is incontrovertible evidence of "state sponsorship" of terrorism.
The professor of comparative and international politics expects denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula is unlikely in the foreseeable future because Kim's ultimate goal is to be recognized as a nuclear weapons state.
"Kim desires to be recognized as arguably the greatest leader in North Korean history," he said.
"The development and perfection of nuclearized ICBM capabilities would be the pinnacle of that, after which, he wants that recognition from Washington."
He thinks although the U.S. is not willing to recognize it as a nuclear weapons state, there isn't any other way because the question of Pyongyang developing that capability has become one of "when," not "if."
"So the U.S., Japan, South Korea and the rest of the world, must accept it, and then immediately talk about developing some mechanism that will foster restraint," he said.
"South Korea will actually have to lobby Washington to accept that reality but ensure that sufficient deterrence is put in place to ensure there is no realistic scenario in which North Korea will use that capability."
Denuclearization unlikely
In the 2018 Outlook seminar hosted by Canon from Nov. 21 to 22 in Singapore, Liow said instability on the Korean Peninsula will continue in 2018 because Pyongyang will further develop its ICBMs.
He expects the North will be able to create a nuclear device small enough to mount on ICBMs and improve its missile technology such that re-entry would be fairly accurate.
"The moment the North is able to achieve this, it is going to fundamentally change the strategic calculation of the U.S. and North Korea because it basically means the U.S. would face a clear and present threat from the Kim regime," Kim said.
He said it won't be easy for Trump to take pre-emptive military action unless he is certain it would completely destroy the North's nuclear capabilities.
"You have be more than 100 percent sure because if you are not able to do that, you can't be certain the regime will not use whatever it has left of that capability to launch so-called second strikes against Seoul and Tokyo," he said.
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